One Percent Decline in Holiday Sales Forecast

I have just finished reviewing a report tabled by the National Retail Federation which is projecting that 2009 US Holiday Sales will decline to $437.6 billion, a one percent decrease from 2008 levels.  This is a reasonably significant drop from the average 3.4% annual growth rate (year-over-year) of the past 10 years, but not as steep a decline as the 3.4% drop experienced last year or the 3.0 average drop for 2009 to-date.

I would tend to agree with NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells, who stated:

As the global economy continues to recover from the worst economic crisis most retailers have ever seen, consumers will focus primarily on practical gifts and shop on a budget this holiday season”

As I mentioned in my blog recently, this macro trend is consistent with what we have been seeing as we analyze our sales patterns of the past few weeks and months.  Consumers everywhere are becoming increasingly pragmatic in how they purchase everything, gourmet foods being no exception.  Long gone are the days of “conspicuous consumption”, where it seemed like it was more important to be seen consuming luxury items than to actually be enjoying and appreciating them.

We sensed this trend of “consumer pragmatism” several months ago and began trying to source what we believe are very good value, practical gourmet food gifts. Such gifts often are an ideal solution for those  “hard-to-buy-for” people we all have on our Christmas Shopping Lists.  Specialty teas, gourmet chocolates, chocolate truffles and even high-end extra virgin olive oils can all be appropriate Holiday Gifts and are often very well received.

While there are some encouraging signs that the economy has begun to improve slightly (such as higher-than-forecast housing sales in August and a steady, upward trend in the stock market), ongoing consumer uncertainty about their own job security and housing values will definitely weigh the market down this holiday season.   This can only translate into a good buying opportunity for savvy consumers as retailers everywhere offer ever-increasingly aggressive prices.

Once again, the savings that can be found on our company’s website, www.epicureanfoods.com, are indicative of this much larger trend.  We have “sharpened our proverbial pencil” to try to cater to our value-seeking, practical customers.  Our own experience this year appears to be consistent with many other vendors, according to NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin, who was quoted in the report as follows:

Retailers’ focus on the holiday season has been razor-sharp with companies cutting back as much as possible on operating costs in order to pass along aggressive savings and promotions to customers.

Like so many other gourmet food producers, we have been forced to make rather drastic operating cuts in order to be able to pass these aggressive prices along to our customers.  We are also working with our suppliers to try to get the best possible prices so that we can pass these savings on to our customers.  In summary, it all adds up to be a really great time to be a gourmet and specialty food consumer…

Greg Sprout, Co-Founder,

www.epicureanfoods.com

The entire report can be viewed at www.nrf.com/holidays

2 Responses to “One Percent Decline in Holiday Sales Forecast”

  1. Drop Shop says:

    Statistics New Zealand reported Monday that retail sales slumped by a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent for the month, when compared to January 2008. Drop Shop

  2. Greg Sprout says:

    Hi

    That’s quite interesting…there are lots of polls out about these things lately…the latest I heard was that online sales will increase by 8% this year but in-store shopping will stay flat…

    Thx for your input…

    Greg Sprout, Co-Founder,
    http://www.epicureanfoods.com

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